The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) in its “A Week in the Horn” report of July 24, 2009, raised issues concerning the visit of kuwaits’ Prime Minister, situations in Somalia and the non aligned movement, Issayas’s reaffirmation of his own peace in the world, Ethio-Sudanese cooperation, Nile Basin initiative annual meeting in Egypt and additional humanitarian requirements for June-December 2009.

Kuwait's Prime Minister in Addis Ababa

A high level government delegation headed by His Highness Sheikh Nassser Al-Mohammed Al-Jabeer Al-Sabah, Prime Minister of the State of Kuwait, made an official visit to the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia this week. The Prime Minister held consultations with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on issues of bilateral and regional concerns. He also made courtesy calls on President Girma Woldegiorgis as well as Ambassador Teshome Toga, Speaker of the House of People's Representatives, and Foreign Minister Seyoum. Members of his delegation held also meetings with their Ethiopian counterparts, and a series of agreements were signed providing for exchange of manpower, agricultural cooperation, upgrading of bilateral air services and cooperation between the Foreign Ministries of the two countries. 

The meetings between Prime Minister Meles and Sheikh Nasser Al-Mohammed were cordial and conducted in an atmosphere of friendship. They made it clear they appreciated the status of all round relationship that existed between the two countries and agreed to enhance further co-operation in all areas of mutual benefit for the well being and prosperity of both peoples. His Highness underlined his appreciation of Ethiopia's firm and consistent stance with respect to support for the sovereignty and integrity of Kuwait.  

The visit of His Highness Sheikh Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Jabeer Al-Sabah and his delegation to Ethiopia is the first of its kind from the Gulf States at this level. It demonstrates the excellent relations that Ethiopia and Kuwait have managed to forge over the years; and provides a model for vibrant relations in the future. It is to be noted that Prime Minister Meles has visited Kuwait two times already, both times receiving warm welcome and hospitality from the leadership of Kuwait. It should also be underlined that the Kuwait Development Fund has been involved in the development effort of Ethiopia, particularly in infrastructure and the service area.  

On Somalia

On Tuesday, at its 198th meeting, the AU's Peace and Security Council discussed Somalia. After briefings from the TFG Minister of Water Resources and Fisheries, representatives of IGAD, the League of Arab States and UNPOS, and from the AU Special Envoy to Somalia, the Council again reiterated its condemnation of the continued aggression against the TFG, Somalia's civilian population and AMISOM by extremists including foreign fighters.  

A day earlier, AMISOM troop contributing countries and international partners also held a consultative meeting in Addis Ababa which welcomed the decision of the previous month’s  PSC meeting (15th June) extending AMISOM’s mandate to January next year. Those present underscored the calls by IGAD, the Peace and Security Council and by the AU Assembly for the United Nations Security Council to take immediate measures, including the imposition of sanctions on all spoilers, including Eritrea, to prevent the entry of foreign elements into Somalia and ban flights and shipments carrying weapons and ammunitions to armed groups carrying out attacks against the TFG, the civilian population and AMISOM. It noted the signing of an MoU between the AU and the UN on supporting AMISOM and agreed an ad-hoc working group should be established to implement the MoU. It reiterated the call to AU member states to provide additional troops to get AMISOM to its authorized strength. 

In a statement adapted unanimously the Council recognized the grave security situation in Somalia and once again called on the UN Security Council to take appropriate measures as proposed by IGAD and endorsed by the PSC as well as by the 13th ordinary session of the AU Assembly of heads of State and Government. These include measures aimed at “spoilers inside and outside” Somalia. Eritrea has again been singled out in this regard as the major culprit. The Peace and Security Council reviewed the rules of engagement for AMISOM and the secretariat was instructed to make arrangements to discuss the issue in substantive terms. The Council requested those AU member states that had pledged to send troops to Somalia to fulfill these commitments urgently. The Ministers of Burundi and Uganda informed the Council of their governments' decision to add more battalions to the troops already deployed in AMISOM. 

The PSC members emphasized the need for the TFG to work more cohesively, to organize proper command and control structures for its security forces and to open up more political space for elements opposed to extremists. The Council recognized the urgent need to support the TFG in all its efforts particularly in the area of security. Support should also include capacity building for various TFG institutions to allow the government to run business properly. For the moment, the security situation in Mogadishu appears to remain in a stalemate. Fighting continues between extremists and TFG and AMISOM forces. The fate of the two French nationals kidnapped by extremists in Mogadishu has yet to be resolved. Another serious development this week was the looting and subsequent closure of three UN offices in Baidoa and Wajid by Al-Shabab. Al-Shabaab has now ordered all other UN and other humanitarian agencies to operate under its own terms and conditions alleging the UN agencies had been supporting the "legitimate" Government of Somalia and AMISOM. 

Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab figured significantly in a speech from Ambassador Phillip Carter, principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Africa Bureau of the State Department. Speaking at Chatham House in London, on Wednesday, on the subject of the US Government's approach to Somalia, Ambassador Phillips, recalling Al-Shabaab had been designated as a Foreign Terrorist organization by the US in February last year, described it as a violent and brutal extremist organization “inspired” by Al Qaeda, and as maintaining links to Al Qaeda operatives. The Ambassador provided a clear and precise exposition of the US position, of its commitment to the peace process and to the Transitional Federal Government, its support for AMISOM and for the position taken by the African Union and by IGAD. He stressed Somalia was part of a global problem which required a global response, as well as international and regional action. He noted the support provided to the TFG by the US directly and through its support for AMISOM, and encouraged all donors to follow through on the promises made in Brussels last April. “It is imperative”, he said, “that we, as supporters of stability in Somalia, fulfill our pledges.” He spoke of the US interest in addressing the problem of piracy which he saw as a largely criminal activity and of the need to deal with the humanitarian situation, which he described as a US priority. The key to long-term peace was improved governance and inclusive political dialogue, led by TFG, and everyone should support this process. He pointed out just how important it was to prevent extremist elements, or terrorists from using Somalia. Ambassador Carter emphasized that the US was not trying to impose any solution in Somalia. Peace must come through a Somali dialogue, within the framework provided by the legitimate Somali government, the TFG. He called on all Somali stakeholders to abide by the provisions of the Djibouti Agreement and commit themselves to preparation for an elected government in 2011 and the drafting of a national constitution. The Ambassador urged all groups to operate within a political not a military framework and insisted that a policy of reconciliation should be part of a broader African solution, including regional powers. He recognized Ethiopia and Kenya's efforts for peace in Somalia and those of the UN, while specifically taking Eritrea to task, calling “particularly” on the Government of Eritrea to cut off its assistance to Al-Shabaab and for it to join its neighbours and the rest of the international community in seeking peace in Somalia. Obviously, Eritrea’s response is unlikely to be positive, and thus the need for the Security Council to take its responsibility seriously. 

The Non Aligned Movement and Somalia

Somalia has been a concern of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) since the Jakarta Summit in 1992. The Movement has a task force on Somalia, and the NAM Caucus in New York monitors Somalia on a regular basis. The Non-Aligned Movement has always called for the peaceful resolution of the conflict to ensure durable peace and genuine reconciliation. In line with this tradition, this year's Ministerial Meeting in Havana welcomed the positive political developments made in the Djibouti peace process, and commended the Somali Government’s effort at reaching out to others, calling on all parties that didn't join the political process to do so. It also stressed the importance of re-establishing and training Somali security forces and welcomed the UN Secretary General’s proposal to develop a program of assistance to rebuild Somali security forces, and welcomed the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1863 (2009), expressing the intention to establish a United Nations peace keeping operation in Somalia as a follow-on force to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The meeting commended Uganda and Burundi for their involvement in AMISOM, paid tribute to the AU Partners and members states, in particular Algeria, for providing financial and logistical support and called upon its members and the international community to provide additional resources for the mission. It welcomed the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia in line with the Djibouti Agreement and expressed its appreciation for the sacrifice made by Ethiopia and its commitment to the search for a lasting solution to the conflict in Somalia. NAM's ministerial meeting condemned all activities which posed a threat to navigation in the region. It welcomed the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1816 (2008), and the establishment of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia. This held its first meeting in New York in January. It called on the international community to mobilize resources and support urgently needed humanitarian assistance, and to extend financial and technical support to the TFG in its efforts towards re-building vital institutions, especially in the areas of security and the rule of law.  

The stance of the Non-Aligned Movement on Somalia was firmly reiterated at the Movement's 15th Summit held earlier this month in Sharm El Sheik. The Summit welcomed the decisions of the 13th Ordinary Session of the Heads of State and Government of the Assembly of the African Union, held at the beginning of July at Sirte, including the decisions on Somalia, and encouraged their effective implementation. The 15th NAM Summit also welcomed the transitional arrangements being made by the UN Security Council including logistical support for deployment and strengthening of AMISOM, and to establish the United Nations Support Office for Somalia in Nairobi to coordinate a logistics base in Mombasa. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon told the Summit: “We cannot fail the people there. Somalis must be at the forefront of resolving their conflict, but neighboring countries, the region and the broader international community must do more to help. We must give resources to the Transitional Federal Government and AMISOM and stop the insurgency.” The Summit commended the African Union for all its efforts in support of AMISOM, and urged the UN to move expeditiously to develop recommendations on the mandate of a future UN peacekeeping mission on Somalia as requested by Security Council Resolution 1863.

Only one country disagreed with the Non-Aligned Movement's unanimity: Eritrea. In spite of theoretically subscribing to the NAM consensus, Eritrea continues to follow a seriously adversarial role towards the TFG in Somalia and indeed the whole region. Its position was made clear at the Summit where the Eritrean delegation made highly critical and derogatory, remarks about both the TFG and AMISOM. Indeed, Eritrea has persistently remained at odds with the position of the Non-Aligned Movement on Somalia, calling for the dismantlement of the TFG and the removal of AMISOM. We wanted to highlight NAM’s unqualified support to the TFG and AMISOM on purpose for we thought the point should not be missed that there is practically no organization in the world - regional, continental and universal - that has even remotely endorsed the position of Eritrea on Somalia.     

President Issayas reaffirms his own place in the world

Earlier this week, Eritrea's Ministry of Information gave an account of some interviews recently given by President Issayas to UK media outlets, the Financial Times, Channel 4 TV and the Guardian. As with numerous other interviews by President Issayas in recent weeks, as part of Eritrea's 16th anniversary of independence in May, these appear to demonstrate both an inflated view of his, and Eritrea's place in the world and an equally impressive capacity to ignore any awkward facts. Indeed, President Issayas, as always, starts from the position that he and he alone, is right. The President told his interviewers, for example, that it was the United States which should improve its relations with Eritrea, not the reverse. Eritrea, he claimed, had done nothing to compromise its relations with the US.  

President Issayas told his interviewers that the real meaning of democracy for Eritrea is in ensuring the participation of the entire people in all political, social, economic and cultural activities of the country. However, the Issayas versions of  popular participation do not include political parties, elections, freedom of speech, freedom of movement, freedom of association, freedom of the press, or freedom of religion. None of these are permitted to the people of Eritrea. Indeed President Issayas has made it clear on a number of occasion in the past 16 years that Eritreans will not want either political parties or elections for several decades, or indeed in his lifetime. Similarly, he says the Eritrean people have decided not to have any independent media nor any of the other things they now lack.  

President Issayas is fond of claiming that any restrictions on Eritrea's political life or development are caused by Ethiopia's failure to accept the Boundary Commission's Decisions of April 2002, alleging this has forced Eritrea to remain on a war footing. He always slides over the fact that he made it clear long before he started his war against Ethiopia in 1998 that he would not implement the Eritrean Constitution or allow any other political parties than his own single ruling Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice. Nor does he bother to note that Ethiopia did accept the Boundary Commission Decisions in November 2004 and has been trying to persuade Eritrea to implement the Decisions and normalize relations ever since. It was Eritrea, not Ethiopia, which tore up the Algiers Peace Agreement of December 2000 by seizing the Temporary Security Zone and humiliated the UN Security Council by forcing the withdrawal of the UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) from Eritrea. President Issayas even went so far as to refer to UNMEE as an example of the kind of international NGOs that he described as “cultivating aid-dependency and corruption” and “squandering away billions of dollars...without accountability.” 

President Issayas apparently made no direct reference to his continuous efforts to destabilize Ethiopia by arming terrorist groups, or his support for all possible direct or indirect efforts to attack Ethiopia, including his involvement in Somalia. Indeed, on Somalia, President Issayas' remarks suggest a similar divergence between Eritrean policy and the reality on the ground. He claimed a solution can only be achieved in Somalia if the Somali people are left alone. He obviously doesn't include Eritrea in his strictures as he ignores Eritrea's indisputable (and publicised) support for extremist Somali opposition forces, including its admitted support for Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and the arms supplies sent to Sheikh Aweys in Somalia in April this year, launching the latest upsurge in attacks on the Somali Government. In fact, what President Issayas means is that the rest of the world should leave Somalia alone so Eritrea can continue its own “principled” support for the extremist elements there. As in all other cases, President Issayas argues that Eritrean policies, and only Eritrean policies, are genuine and acceptable; everybody else's are dangerous and will lead to complications and delays in finding solutions. As always, Eritrea (or more correctly President Issayas personally) is right; everyone else (from the President of the United States down) is quite simply always wrong, unless they agree with President Issayas himself. On the other hand, as has already been indicated in the previous piece, there is absolutely no organization or country that substitute to this Eritrean position on the current situation in Somalia.

Ethio - South Sudan; Adjacent States Cooperation Bearing Fruit

The adjacent states of Ethiopia and Southern Sudan held their Second Consultative Meeting from 21-23 July 2009 in Juba. 

The Ethiopian delegation was led by Dr. Tekeda Alemu, Minister of States for Foreign Affairs and the South Sudan delegation was led by the Minister for regional cooperation; General Oyai  Deng Ajake.  The Ethiopian Delegation also included the presidents of Southern Nations,  Nationalities and Peoples and Gambella while those of South Sudan included the Governors of Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Upper Nile.  

The foundation for this Consultative meeting was laid during the official visit of Gen. Salva kiir, President of Southern Sudan and first Vice President of the Government of National Unity, in 2007 which resulted in the signing of an Umbrella agreement for social, economic and technical cooperation, between Ethiopia and South Sudan.

As a follow up to the first consultative meeting held in Addis Ababa in 2008, this second meeting assessed progress made in the implementation of the agreements concluded at the first meeting and identified the main challenges to the full implementation of commitments made. 

The areas of cooperation among the adjacent states mainly focused on border development, security, trade, road network b/n key border towns, free movement of people, capacity building and access to social services such as health and education for the border communities. 

The meeting noted the progress made in the construction of roads that will eventually link south Sudan to three Ethiopian regions of Benishangul, Gambella and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional States.  In this regard, among others, particular attention was given to the Mizan Teferi - Boma - Kapoeta road network so that Juba could be linked to Ethiopia by road.  

The  need  for  institutional  capacity  building of Southern Sudan  was appraised  and the adjacent  States of Ethiopia  offered  scholarships for the next academic years in health, education and agriculture.   

The two parties agreed to enhance their cooperation in maintaining peace   and security, disarmament, cross border movement of people, and problems related to cattle rustling and child abduction.    

The fast growing   business transaction between the regions was also recognized and it was agreed to encourage the development by removing trade barriers and opening of custom post between the regions  

To further scale up the cooperation as a way forward, it was agreed to properly   and efficiently utilize follow - up mechanisms and technical committee will be set up to this end. 

The Ethiopian delegation paid a courtesy call on President Salva Kiir   and at the end of the meeting the head of the Ethiopian delegation Dr Tekada Alemu has briefed the president on the outcome of the meeting.  

It should be underlined that the overall process of cooperation at this level between Ethiopia and South Sudan is being carried out in full compliance with the provisions of the CPA and within its spirit.

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) annual meeting in Egypt

The 29th Nile Technical Advisors Committee (Nile-TAC) Meeting in Alexandria started on Thursday, preparing for the 16th Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM) Meeting to be held from 27th and 28th July, also in Alexandria. Nile-TAC Sub Committees on Technical Matters, on Human Resources and on Financial Matters have been addressing various issues including the Nile Basin Sustainability Framework; Draft Interim Procedures for Data and Information Sharing and Exchange; the NBI Capacity Building Strategy Development brief; the Proposal on Regional Network for Climate Change in the Nile Basin; the Management and Financial Report of the NBI Secretariat; a Work Plan and Budget for 2009/2010 FY, and the Audit report for 2007/2008 FY. The Ministers are also expected to discuss different investment projects being developed in the two subsidiary Action Programs covering the Eastern Nile Countries and Equatorial Lake countries.

The rotating Chairmanship of the Nile Council of Ministers is now being assumed by Egypt, taking over from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Under the DRC Chairmanship, it will be recalled that at the extraordinary Nile Council of Ministers Meeting in Kinshasa on 22 May 2009 Burundi, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda decided that the Cooperative Framework Agreement, following ten years of negotiations, was ready to be signed and that the remaining differences on Article 14(b) of the Agreement would be resolved within six months of the establishment of the Nile River Commission. Sudan was not represented and Egypt did not sign the Cooperative Framework in Kinshasa.

Following the decisions taken in Kinshasa, negotiators of the nine countries met in Kenya early this month to try to align the Cooperative Framework Agreement to the decisions made during the negotiation stage. There has been considerable speculation, much ill-informed some deliberately intended, to misrepresent or to spin ministerial decisions into confrontation. There have even been media claims of intended international law suits. In fact, the spirit of the Framework Agreement is inclusive and is intended to provide some finality to the long, and fruitful, process of negotiation. Now is the time to look forward in establishing a real basin-wide organization. The meetings in Alexandria, building on the achievements of the NBI, can be expected to provide needed guidance on the future of cooperation over the Nile River. No doubt, achieving that objective is not going to be easy. What appears to be happening is that the parties in this process have come to a decision time concerning critical issues which call for real and practical commitment to co-operation which is fair and which embraces devotion to a win -win outcome. 

Additional humanitarian requirement for June-December 2009 announced

The Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has recently announced that a Government-led multi-agency assessment to update humanitarian requirements for the second half of the year is currently under way. This follows concerns shown by early warning system, and information obtained from the regions on the current food security situation in belg and pastoral areas. Following the poor performance of the 2009 belg season, and a poor start to the 2009 meher season as well as concern over the rainfall outlook for the 2009 meher season, there is a critical need to forecast the likely impact of all these on the now increasing relief food requirements.

In January 2009, 4.9 million people were identified as in need of emergency food assistance. By May 2009, the number in need of assistance increased to 5.3 million due to area assessments submitted by regional governments. This increase in the number of emergency beneficiaries was primarily due to the poor performance of the 2009 belg season. Meanwhile, due to limited relief food resources, the Government and its partners were not able to fully cover the current emergency beneficiaries, and as of the end of June, the national relief programme had only been able to distribute three rounds of reduced rations. The Government, in collaboration with its partners, is now taking additional measures, including general food distribution, to address the problem.

According to the information issued by National Meteorological Agency, the 2009 Kremt (main rainy) season should be close to normal in most parts of the country, but many food insecure areas are expected to have below normal rainfall. The western and south western parts of the country have a high probability of better rainfall compared to the eastern half of the country; the forecast for the north-east and the eastern and northern parts of the country is near normal to below normal Kremt rains. According to the Agency, this year’s rain pattern is similar to years which have preceded food crises of average or more than average magnitude in successive years.

The report now being complied by the DRMFSS is aimed to provide indications of the possible relief food requirement for the remainder of the year, basing the analysis on monitoring and early warning information, the likely impact of the rainfall outlook for the kremt rains on the current meher planting season. Several scenarios are being developed: 1) and the least liely is that the emergency need might fall back to the level of 4.9 million; 2) need could remain at the May/June 2009 level of assistance of 5.3 million beneficiaries, a figure which covers additional requests from the regions; or 3) the most probable, that emergency needs will jump to 6.2 million following the poor performance of the 2009 belg season, the poor start to the current (2009) meher rains, and the below normal rainy season forecast for the eastern parts of the country. The report will allow the strategies that Government and partners must put in place, to address potentially increasing needs, to be identified as quickly as possible.