NILE, EGYPT, SHABIYA and its ‘THIRD TONGUE’ (P- II)
By Mesfin Aweke(July 8, 2013)
Dear reader, this writer on part one of this article, has cruised through shabiya’s tongue twisting and its contradictory statements towards the Nile River. The writer of this article has promised to debunk the outfit’s recent blabber “we support Egypt’s historic right of the Nile water”, courtesy of their third tongue twisting. So, the Asmara’s outfit «third mouth» continues …
The Eritrea government is a singer of the “Anti-Ethiopian people and government” ballad. It’s not only singing but also trying to dance to the song. It’s not only trying to but desperately trying to shuffle. And you can bet it will try to dance in the future. Despite the consequence of its unruliness have on its existence and the inability to decimate ‘Ethiopiansm’, it doesn’t seem to change their inner workings.
The ‘militant’ Ato Isaias is indirectly implying that the Nile river is not (partly) Ethiopian, if his letter to president Morsi is to be unraveled. Eritrea and Egypt has recently agreed on a bilateral relation to work together. Their agreement to work together might have been commanding, if it hadn’t an ‘anti-Ethiopian’ agenda.
One of the discussions (if it can be called that) the two countries had was on the Nile river. If Dear read as can recall from part one of this Article, the writer bad expressed the letter Ato Isaias sent to president Morsi through his political advisor Ato Yemane Gebre’ab and foreign minister Ato Osman Salah is marred with anti-Ethiopianism.
The letter also included Eritrea’s support of the colonial era treaty that grants Egypt exclusive usage (of the water). On his part, president Morsi has expressed his delight on the Eritrea’s support of Egypt’s share on the Nile. To make matters short, they both have expressed their delight on. In addition it’s been reported that Egypt had shown interest in opening talks with the red sea nation’s cow boy Ato Isaias as soon as possible.
Putting aside Ato Isaias’s lifelong trademark of “embracing lies at the expense of the truth”, its quest to cooperate exclusively with the Egyptian government is not diplomatically speaking acceptable. Supporting the colonial era treaty (if it can be called a treaty) which parried the riparian countries inalienable rights on the Nile water both disrespects the upstream countries and also undermines the GRD construction- since the old colonial era treaty is unjust.
Of course it’s not a bad thing that Ato Isaias sent a messenger to Cairo in the hopes of working closely with Egypt-if it wasn’t obvious that it’s hidden agenda is to find a stage to unleash it’s ‘anti-Ethiopian sentiments’.
Ato isaias is famous for not having a coherent developmental, peace & democratic agenda. Since his guerilla days at Sahel Mountains to his ascendency of premiership, his wicked record speaks to high volumes of a man resistant of democracy and peace.
So, it’s safe and intelligent to assume his trip to Egypt has got nothing to do with developmental or bilateral cooperation. Thus, his recent angle is to inevitably hymn his habitual and favorite anti-Ethiopia tune- like the out of fashioned saying “my enemy’s enemy is my friend”.
The shabiya’s honcho gaze to Egypt is a result of his “warlike” calculations, which led him to conclude that Ethiopia and Egypt are mortal enemies.
Of course this writer is not suggestion that both Ethiopia & Egypt are historical or strategical enemies. The country’s long lasting cultural affinity, investment and trade relation is there for everybody to see, especially these last few years.
But, this doesn’t mean there aren’t issues where they don’t see eye to eye. Every country doesn’t have to agree with each other on everything or even understand each other, depending on their respective national interest. This is a reality of the modern world’s two-way communication.
So, it’s true that both Ethiopia and Egypt have been differing on the way to utilize the Nile waters for ages. But, disagreement is not a precursor of being enemies.
It’s also true that Egypt’s has been insisting on the old colonial era treaty which grant her exclusive share of the Nile River, while fending off Ethiopia from using the river- but this doesn’t make her Ethiopia’s enemy. It’s this writer view that despite Ethiopia’s share of 85% of the river water; the country has been sitting nonchalantly watching by for generations. It’s been Sudan and Egypt who have been utilizing the river.
Its known fact that both countries especially Egypt have tried to fend off Ehtiopia out of her right of sharing the Nile River.
Even though there hasn’t been any direct Egyptian blocking of Ethiopian diversion endeavor, there were indirect stone walling to parry Ethiopia’s attempt by Egypt. Influential Egyptians like the lights of Butros Butros Gali have stone walled about the slightest possibility of thinking about utilizing the water, let alone diverting the river.
Ethiopia’s role to reverse the 1929 & 1959 ratified out dated, unfair and immoral treaty, into an agreement based on equal benefit for all basin countries, is immense. This is thanks to the Visionary leader Ato Meles Zenawi and his organization, who worked day and night to turn this century’s old dream into reality. So, the GRD construction can be said is part of this long and unswerving effort.
When the shabiys’s despot claimed his support for Egypt’s stance over the colonial-era “treaty”, he’s for one opposing the Dam’s construction and the agreement of all the riparian countries, which will put him in altercation with the downstream countries.
AtoIsaias background is amassed with anti-Ethiopianism, so he’s seeking ally in shape of Egypt (to fend of Ethiopia) by posing or appear as a supporter in time of Egypt’s need.
Shabiya is desperately looking for Anti-Ethiopian groups who are oblivious of the mobocracy’s sanction from the regional & international community due to its wicked antics. Of course, this quest might not be in barren hope after all - since the outfit may find a partner for its anti-Ethiopian obsession.
As we all may understand, Ato isaias since his first days of presidency-for-life have strived to create a blood bath in Ethiopia- with no avail.
There were also times; until there day dream turned into a nightmare, where the Asmara’s cow-boys self delusion of a grandeur and of a better civilizations might have led them to believe they can invade and plunder the country’s resource into Ethiopia and realize a very fast economic boom.
Generally, they have tried every possible thing to derail and stall Ethiopian’s development, peace and democratic going as far as sending training & brainwashing like-minded partners.
So, the ‘Contraband’ outfits recent jostling is an extension of prior commitment. At a time when their economy is in ‘death spiral’ and their spirit at the bottom of a huge abyss, Egypt came into their mirror and they angled for a move of their own. Thus, they stand besides Egypt to reignite and echo their Anti-Ethiopian rhetoric, although everybody including Cairo understands their motives.
The ‘hawkish’ Ato Isaias on his part is swamped with development, peace and demands from his people. Instead of helping his ailing government and responding to the Eritrean’s people demands, he choose to reinvigorate his ‘out dated’ commitment to Cairo. It’s his fantasy is to see Ethiopia destroyed and relegate into a’ was’. Naturally, when his fantasies turn into nightmares and Ethiopia develop, he’s turned into destruction-crazed lunatic.
At a time of intense internal political and economical fever like the one they’re having right now, this craze hate for anything Ethiopian hit it’s boiling point diverting the tension in the process.
Of course as a mafia-head of an ochlocracy government, Ato isaias has speak half of his presidency needling neighboring countries and antagonizing the whole region. He has shown his destruction-crazed personality, although it hasn’t won him anything more than pariah and being made as a terrorist-chief.
His recent travels to Cairo to relay his admiration for his Egyptian counterparts; have confirmed publicly his everlasting role of being Ethiopia’s arch enemy, implied in the moved of an opportunistic and weak termite at that.
Although it’s too early to tell, but it can be safely assumed that there won’t any forces joining the anti-Ethiopian party driven by his rhetoric’s.
According to his inner mischievous desires, he wants to use Egypt as a base for his anti-Ethiopian preaching, training and arming. Ergo it’s not that suspiring that he’s looking for an outside help of partner for one last hurrah before his flickering reign comes to a halt.
After all, it’s only shabiya not Eritreans that got freedom from Eritrea’s independence losing its legitimacy from the people in the process. In light with then rampant opposition around home and abroad, it’s apprehensible that he would use this imbecile approach- ‘desperate actions calls for desperate measures. It’s the writer of this Article view that Ato isaias winked at Egypt for three basic reasons.
The first one has got to also with his cavalier personality sliced with his staunch anti-Ethiopian attitude. It’s his plan to be the ‘sheriff’ of the region and conquest Ethiopia and plunder its resource and people in the process. His dream of becoming the ‘macho’ of East Africa faded into a pipe dream quickly living him only to deluded fantasies.
Hence the Asmara’s parasitic government obsession with anything anti-Ethiopian, and its initiation of parties with a hint of that pre-occupation. Even realizing its incapacity to throw off Ethiopia from its developmental avenue (courtesy of a shock therapy) hasn’t helped stanch its mischievous plots.
The second reason has to do with Shabiya’s financial decline. This patronage will/may afford the Asmara juggernaut’s a stage and financial sponsorship out of their international isolation and monetary difficulties. They have to look for other avenue in order to stay afloat. Consequent this has steered them in to the direction of Egypt to recruit (as a base) some anti-Ethiopian forces to form alliances and financial aegis. As ‘looking for lice in a coat’ ,some anti-Ethiopian dissidents like ‘Ginbot 7’ might bite the hook, and save the Isaias Afwerki’s otherwise ill-advised plan.
It’s not only shabiyas week financial and military position and the decaying state of the formerly robust militarized condition of the horn of Africa, but the heightened level of hatred towards the monocracy by the Eritrean people both at home and abroad which diminished popular support. The mobocracy’s usual remittance fee of 2% out of its Diasporas money transfer have stagnated after it became clear that the money is spent on Ato isaiass bravado antics. This is the third reason which forced him to call upon Egypt’s government.
The Asmara’s rag tag brutal and undemocratic ways have left them to be despised by the people. The regime has contributed for Eritrea’s higher-up ranking of human right violation. It is steered by a ting group of people and there is no such thing as free election.
Although Shabiya cloaking it’s motives may pose as an Egyptian ally, but as the new Egyptian government officials are well aware of their terrorist antics, the writer of this article don’t think they will be an accomplice or participant of the ploy and they shouldn’t.
The Egyptians understand the Ato Isaias led terrorist club is trying for its last gasp for air to stay afloat and it’s an age where you can’t get by mere jostling. The Asmara’s rag tag for one is sanctioned out of both the international and regional organization and also IGAD.
Secondly its financial clout is weak and thirdly is being pressurized by its own military. Therefore the Cairo government will no gain anything from this partnership, in fact it will put the Morsi government under the bad side of its neighboring countries.
Shabiya current state is that much deteriorated. The new Egyptian government officials should not be swayed by shabiya’s political maneuvering, and also have to understand employing countries as a proxy base for destabilizing like it was in the days of Mubarak would not work. Instead they should comprehend the inalienable right of the littoral countries to utilize their natural resources whilst stopping conniving with the Isaias Regime and side with the reality of the situation. And that reality is the riparian countries; after centuries of being parried from using their water resources, have given their consent happily to the new cooperative framework agreement (CFA) which ensures equitable share of the water.
Ethiopia is constructing the GRD in the Nile river not to reduce Egypt’s use of the river but to share the water with all riparian countries including and especially Egypt in equitable & fairly manner- as depicted in the new cooperative framework agreement.
Ethiopia’s quest is to cooperatively use common resources and to develop side by side. So, it is the belief of this article writer that if President Morsi can ignore the internationally maligned militant and war crazed Ato. Isaias and tighten its relation with the downstream countries especially Ethiopia will be beneficial for all. Both Egypt and the downstream countries can gain more from ever more close cooperation rather than partnering with small time terrorist crusaders which blabbers to fill its null pocket.
Of course it won’t benefit anyone, if both Ato. lsaias and President Morsi decide to oppose or undermine the new cooperative framework agreement which is backed by international water laws and allow for equitable utilization of the Nile river. It’s both unjust and immoral.
According to the belief of this writer, anyone should not hide the truth that, although the Egyptian government is not expected to be swayed by Ato isaias mischievous advocacy, there might be some homework left to the Ethiopian people and Government. As a result close supervision is needed for the slightest hint of a plot and to close all possible shabiya-born conniving schemes.
Of course it not Ethiopian’s role to foil shabiya-stemmed subversive militants and terrorists plot. So, it’s up to the littoral states to start acting as one and thwart any threat at its budding stage- although it’s impossible for anyone to sabotage the agreement.
The colonial era agreement by any standard is not acceptable. It was Egypt’s colonist Great Britain who gave the right of the river to Egypt hoping to plunder the country’s wealth by using the Nile to grow cotton. But, if Egypt and Eritrea decide to take the treaty as legitimate it will make things difficult. It would make this unjust treaty which gives Egypt exclusive right on the water appropriate. Since the colonial era agreements have no legitimacy (by the public) voiding it is not only befitting but also detrimental. That’s why Ethiopian is opposing this unjust and irrational treaty (law) and using their right to construct the GRD.
Consequently, by siding with Egypt and hymning an anti-Ethiopian tune, shabiya is not only undermining Ethiopia’s right to use the river by all the riparian countries as well. So it’s expected of these countries to stand by Ethiopia and foil shabiya’s plot.
Shabiya is in no position to pose a greater threat /harm/ other than training and arming its own cronies, while its sphere of influence is around vandalism. All in all since the cowboys real target is to self-destruct, the riparian counties should work very closely on proactively stopping any threat from its onset, if shabiya’s is willing to serve as delivery boy as part of the two countries partnership.
We can all agree one thing, that is whatever patronage or cronies shabiya is willing to go to bed with, they should know no law will stop the equitable water sharing framework the riparian countries agreed on or to exercise their right to use their resource. The vandals should also know that there’s force under the sun that will stop Ethiopia’s right to use river.
Let this writer add one more thing, if Ato Isaias recent wink at Egypt is aimed at; just like it was on the days of Mubarak, to sway Morsi’s government as guising itself as militant in the hopes of reversing his ailing economy and failing politics, well he should understand that it’s a mistake. Not only it’s a mistake but a fatal undoing which can have serious repercussions.
This writer can name two reasons. The first is the current Egypt situation doesn’t allow it to be a cash-cow for opportunistic parasites and secondly,the Ethiopian government (new policy) is to counter with the same force shabiya-born attacks which will further divide its already disgruntled military that went as for having a failed coup d’état.
Let us see the reasons /thruth/ in for the detail…
It’s an already known fact that recent political situation in Egypt is neither stable nor tranquil. It is opinion of many analysts it will take a long time for the political temperature to recede.
After the demise of Mubarak regime to the disappointment of many, the realities on the ground is that not all as hoped it would be. The frequent political bickering from both sides of the aisle is not only hurting but destabilizing the country’s economy and this will leave not enough for the mercenary-for-hire Ato. Isaias Afewerki dwindling pocket. So, there won’t be any financial gain worth his stockpile, even then it won’t be enough. It can be said that Ato Isaias is knocking at the wrong money ‘vault’.
With regards to self-defence,the Ethiopian government will be forad to take legal and reciprocal action for Ato Isaias needling. Long gone are the days where shabiya was left spared without consequence after its random terrorist attacks. They will have to suffer the same fate with the language they understands. This shifting stance is further confirmed by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in the recent 8-month report briefing at the parliament. If the Asmara vandal’s renew their former role of proxy pestering, the reciprocal measure will further weaken shabiya’s already divided military. This will lead shabiya in to a death spiral. It’s safe to conclude that Ato Isaias kissing of Egyptian hands just to derail Ethiopian people development will not be profitable, but fatal.
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