Horn of Africa’s Number One Agenda Should be: Engineering the Removal of the Brutal Regime in Asmara
09 May, 2008
By Seyoum Tesfaye
Atlanta, Georgia
When you think it could not get worse and you are hoping the conflict he triggered with Ethiopia will be finally resolved so that the Horn of Africa will get a chance to live in peace, the Eritrean tyrant decided to create another diversion from his chronic domestic crisis by advancing his army to the border of another sovereign nation: Djibouti.
The UN Security Council has clear evidence, as if it needed another one, to fully grasp the true nature of the Eritrean regime. It must demand the immediate and unconditional removal of the Eritrean forces from Djibouti’s border before things get out of control and blood flows. If the Security Council fails to act then France and the United States must come to the defense of Djibouti and jointly act in a bold and decisive way to put an end to this provocation. The Horn of Africa is too strategic to be left to the persistence manipulation of one megalomaniac tyrant.
The Bush administration came to power promising to do everything to defeat terrorism globally and advance democracy. In the context of concretely advancing democracy in Eritrea the US administration has failed miserably. It had neither a compressive overarching strategy nor a detailed plan of action that one can make reference to. In the face of a sustained visceral and virulent anti- American and anti-democracy machination by the Eritrean tyrant, for over 7 years, the US has been swaggering between polite condemnation and periodic hyperbolic declaration without a clearly defined policy or attainable agenda.
The US has consistently underestimated Isaias’ ability and demonic skill to create a regional havoc while starving and suffocating the people of Eritrea literally and figuratively. Instead of realizing the gravity of the challenge and taking strong measures to create the most favorable conditions for the removal of Isaias from power US has been acting more like a circus elephant than a formidable superpower with immense leverage at its disposal. The residual effect is now he is about to unleash his toxic agenda on Djibouti.
Except the mandatory periodic diplomatic pleasantries and “exchange of ideas” the American government has treated the Eritrean opposition as an afterthought instead of a potential strategic ally. Its approach has been unpredictable, tentative and to a certain extent even opportunistic. It has not exhibited a discernable philosophical, political or policy underpinning in its approach. Almost for a whole decade it has been muddling through without a clearly defined overarching template. It has been equally tentative in its dealing with brutal regime in Asmara as well as with the Eritrean opposition.
The detailed yearly Human Right reports produced by the State Department have no policy implication or assertive political interpretation to back it up. It functions more like an instrument of appeasement and pacification. It is a bone periodically thrown to the activists and the media so that they will think US is paying attention without any policy implication or adjustment. The reality is in the last 7 years, while the US was dancing the diplomatic wobble; Isiais has gone beyond the border of Eritrea to expand his terroristic action to the Horn of Africa region. The bully has graduated into a gangster and has taken an overtly hostile posture towards the US and his neighbors with total impunity.
I have no qualm in stating that the looming crisis between Eritrea and Djibouti is a direct result of the US’s anemic and myopic approach to the Horn of Africa and more precisely its inability to come to the conclusion that the Isiaia regime is a cancer that need be taken out with the help of the Eritrean opposition and Eritrean people. US failed to send the right signal as well as to nurture solid Eritrean allies. This is what happens when a great nation suffers from undiagnosed vertigo: It damages its long range interest, pushes away its potential allies and emboldens tyrants.
Let us hope the new US administration will have a more comprehensive and cohesive strategic understanding of the Horn of Africa’s challenge and come with a proactive plan to checkmate and remove the lunatic Isaias’ regime before he starts implementing his second round aggression plan on the entire region.
The Ethiopian government “containment strategy” has also failed. Those who drafted the policy might be reluctant to publicly acknowledge and verbalize this hard reality. Eloquent justifications aside, Isaias has neither been contained nor brought back to the vicinity of rational thinking as a result of Ethiopia’s containment strategy. He has been given a breathing space to sharpen his destructive skills. Whatever positive benefit harvested as a result of the “containment” strategy has been tactical and short lived.
By the same logic the Sana’a Cooperation has neither the cohesiveness, nor the potency engendered by a sense of purpose or the structural capability to contain and dissolve the Isaias regime. It is a paper alliance without teeth or muscle. Its intentions have become blurred and its approach to the regime in Asmara has fallen victim to Isaias’ Machiavellian manipulation.
Ethiopia’s incursion into Somalia did, for a brief duration, damage Isaias’ nefarious agenda. But the blow was neither strategic nor irreversible. The inability of the Somalia’s Transitional Government to take advantage of Ethiopia’s help and politically resolve the governance crisis through the process of genuine reconciliation has nullified most of the marginal benefits garnered due to Ethiopia’s incursion. Ethiopia cannot sustain its engagement in Somalia for too long. If a genuine reassessment is not already underway the obvious enormous human, material and political cost will soon impose its own calendar. Isaias is counting on this. He will continue to fan the flames and keep cultivating and sponsoring all negative forces in Somalia in order to sabotage the American interest and defeat Ethiopia’s agenda in the Horn of Africa.
The need for a different strategy is obvious, unavoidable and extremely urgent.
When America administration, Ethiopia government and the Eritrean opposition camp come to the same conclusion and start working on a mutually designed strategy all relevant actors will get their concerns addressed and their fundamental problem resolved. Without this strategic convergence Horn of Africa will go on starving for peace. All talk about economic development and raising the region’s standard of living to a respectable level will just be a dream built on sinking sand. The time and condition is right for this kind of unified strategic policy shift. It boils down to the presence or absence of political will.
Isaias has the will power to invest his intellect and meager resource for destructive agenda unreservedly. Those who should stand up and put an end to his evil plan have all the resources and experience but lack the political will power. Until this willpower is deliberately cultivated and focused by those who want to bring peace to the Horn of Africa he will continue and thrive in his pyromaniac adventure. Djibouti will just be another fire.
The road to lasting peace in Darfur, Mogadishu and Ogden is through democratic governance in Asmara. Without decisively dealing with the gangster in Asmara, Horn of Africa will not have lasting peace. Relative and isolated peace is a luxury left to those who do not have grasp of history. All sentiments and political posturing aside: Engineering the removal of the Isaias’ regime is the most overriding agenda in the Horn of Africa. Seasoned diplomats might not like this kind of staright talk, but a decade after the Badme War if they fail to grasp this stark reality that means their diplomatic pouches are being used for the frivolous purpose.
The ushering of democratic governance in Eritrea will be the beginning of regional peace in the Horn of Africa. The longer this is delayed the more complicated the Horn of Africa’s problem becomes. There is no way around this: the regime in Asmara has to be removed and removed as early as possible. All local, Diaspora, regional and global political actors have to swallow this bitter conclusion and formulate a workable strategy to get rid of this aggressive cancer. What is at stake is primarily the very survivable of Eritrean people, the State of Eritrea and regional peace and progress. We do not have the luxury of living through this kind of madness for another decade.
I take this opportunity to say to the people of Djibouti and its leadership that this madness is not the making of the Eritrean people. It is important that you know there are millions of Eritreans who condemn this unprovoked incursion into your sovereignty. We hope and pray the actions of one mad man will not destroy the goodwill and friendship that has existed between the two people. We hope you will still shelter and protect the thousands of Eritrean who have escaped from the tyrant’s brutality into your country. They are victims of the same force who is preparing to wage war on your sovereignty and people. The Eritrean people are your neighbors and allies.
In the face of brutal tyranny a numbing paralysis has become the latest Eritrean political fashion. We have become zombies with doctorate, masters and all sorts of certificates of achievement with no commitment to justice and the rule of law. The Eritrean psychic has been neutered and diluted to a point of no recognition. Our celebrated arrogance has finally turned into a collective shame. We need to come out of this incapacitating disillusion, recoup our sense of purpose and offer our bleeding nation some sense of hope. We have a national duty that cannot be deferred or limited to coffee break intellectualization. We need to regain our composure and accept the challenge to save our people and nation form the hands of a confirmed warmonger.
In case we need a reminder may 6, 2008 was the 10 year anniversary of the Senseless Bademe War. The “President of Eritrea” is addicted to war, enjoys cultivating chaos and is deeply starving for negative attention. How else can one explain this irrational and bizarre behavior? How many dead Eritreans, Ethiopians, Somalians, Sudanese, Yemenis and citizens of Djibouti will satisfy Isaias’s addiction for blood? Count the infinite stars.
It is time for Eritreans in the Diaspora to stop hiding behind all sorts of rationalization and demand that Isiaias’ remove his aggressive force from Djibouti’s border without any precondition. This time let us get it right. We should not forget the lesson from the Badme War. Let us be proactively vocal and state to the world that we oppose this aggression unconditionally. It is our individual and collective responsibility.
