Eritrea’s collapsing economy bad omen for Ethiopian, neighboring countries’ oppositions
There is a conducive atmosphere for nations sharing the same border to cement and nurture sound social, political and economic cooperation. And, most countries take advantage of such an opportune moment to propel their economy forward and thus transform the livelihoods of their citizens.
Our country is one among these countries that have drawn immense benefits from such kinds of cooperation it has forged with its neighbors since long ago. The Djibouti port, for instance, has been serving as a gateway for our nation thus immensely contributing for the smooth flow of import and export items. Besides, the installation of electric lines has reportedly been in progress to commence the export of electric power to the Sudan, Kenya and Djibouti which is believed to bring the country substantial amount of revenue.
In short our country has currently been enjoying amicable socio-economic ties with all its neighbors except Eritrea. Unlike the government of Ethiopia, the dictatorial Asmara regime has spoiled socio-economic ties with almost all its neighbors. However, it would have become number one beneficiary from the dynamic and booming development works in the region. But, its objective is far from employing these opportunities and beef up its economy. Rather it is resorted in hampering development works in the region either through direct military operations or indirectly using international and home-grown terrorists such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) as instruments. Nonetheless, the route the regime has opted is now leading it to its ultimate demise.
As a result, its economy has been amazingly declining in the past years and currently reached at its final stage. Its citizens are finding it difficult to win their daily bread. It is day-to-day phenomenon to witness bread, milk, and rationed cooking gas lines in the streets of Asmara. The price of basic commodities like sugar, wheat flour, cement, among others reached at their triple prices.
Sources reveal that the government of Eritrea has now been becoming unable to pay its workers. Things are not even different for the military. “Running out of wheat, the government is serving the military sorghum bread…,” awate.com indicated.
There is a severe shortage of oil in that country. Many businesses, including Eritrea's brewery business and Eritrea’s fishing industry, have been virtually shut down due to oil shortage.
“No industry is spared: the oil shortage, combined with the regime’s misguided economic policy, has resulted in the shutting down of most industries—including car repair shops…” the same website added.
The desperate Asmara leadership attempts to reverse its policies not realizing it is too late. “Facing a deteriorating economy, the Eritrean regime is on the verge of reversing policies it was advised not to take to begin with. Topping the list is the ill-advised decision the regime took in 2002 to shut down all 12th grade classrooms all over Eritrea and to refer all 11th grade students to the military camp in Sawa…”
Eritrea’s current situation is truly terrible. As a result, the collapsing economy along with other diverse socio-political troubles in that country has been forcing citizens of that country to cross borders in hundreds of thousands to the neighboring countries.
According to AFP report of March 2008, over 3,000 Eritreans, about a third of them soldiers, fled their country to northern Ethiopia over the past six months.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that over 20,000 Eritreans have taken refuge in Ethiopia. Eritrean citizens were the largest nationality to seek asylum in the UK in 2006, a trend mirrored in several other nations across Europe. AFP also reported, “Eritrea with an estimated population of 4.2 million people has 850,000 refugees sheltered in various countries across the globe.”
Those who managed to flee the grip of the ruthless regime do not have the faintest interest to return home unless the incumbent regime has been replaced by a new one. They are dead sure that their fate would be death the moment they set foot to their country.
According to Haaretz.com website reporter that approached some Erirtreans sheltered at a refugee camp in Tel Aviv, Israel the responses of some of the refugees were shocking. They do not even feel safe now while residing in a third country.
Abu, who is 30 and an officer of Eritrean army, was one of those refugees. He was initially reluctant to be interviewed. When he finally agreed to talk, he asked that his words not to be recorded and move far away from the crowd - on the shelter's ground floor. "You have to understand, even here, far away from home, I do not feel safe," he explained, constantly sneaking looks in every direction. "I don't know if whoever is listening to us now is a collaborator with the Eritrean government," he hinted, referring to the other refugees going up and down the stairs of the shelter.
"At a certain stage, I stopped understanding why we were fighting, and [started] to notice how corrupt the army and government were," he said. A year ago he fled to the Sudan. The moment he fled, the Eritrean government took his mother and sister and imprisoned them as hostages until he return. He said that when he felt unsafe in Sudan, he decided to flee to Israel via Egypt. Responding to a question regarding what would be his fate if he returned home, Abu said that "We have no home to return to as long as the government isn't replaced. They would shoot me immediately. I am wanted in my own country. [But] the entire world knows about our government and the monstrous things it does."
The other refugee Zaura, 27, holds her 9-month-old baby daughter. Her husband served five years in the Eritrean army before he chose to escape with his family to the Sudan. "All the time war…war” she says sick and tired of the situation in that country. In the Sudan, her husband was caught and imprisoned when it was determined he was an Eritrean refugee. Zaura and her daughter fled to Israel two months ago. Instead of seeking remedies for its lingering economy and salvaging its desperate citizens from picking up fleeing as an option, the Asmara regime has been busy quarreling with its neighbors. The government in particular does not wish to witness progress and development in the region especially in Ethiopia. With this sinister motive in mind, it has been training, arming and financing various terrorist groups to fulfill its ill desires.
We all know that the US government last February 2008 designated al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. It is obvious that Al-Shabaab is a violent and brutal extremist group with a number of individuals affiliated with al-Qaida. Many of its senior leaders are believed to have been trained and fought with al-Qaida in Afghanistan.
The group has been employing intimidation and violence to undermine the Somali transitional government and threatened civil society activists working to bring about peace through political dialogue and reconciliation.
Al-Shabaab had scattered leaflets on the streets of Mogadishu warning participants in last year's reconciliation conference that they intended to bomb the conference venue. It had even promised to shoot anyone planning to attend the conference and to blow up delegates' cars and hotels.
The group also claimed responsibility for tragic assassinations of transional government officials, as well as several bombings and shootings in Mogadishu targeting our defense force there and transitional government troops. Its leaders also ordered their fighters to attack African Union (AU) troops based in Mogadishu and foreign fighters to join al-Shabaab in their fight in Somalia.
However, it is this terrorist group that the Eritrean regime has been providing military and financial support to carry out its terrorist missions in that country. The long and wicked arms of Shaibiya have even been stretched to Asia backing up the Tamil Tiger separatists.
Apart from extending military and financial backings, the regime also shelters members of opposition parties of Ethiopia and other neighboring countries. However, the fate of the so called oppositions sheltered in that country is not different from the rest of the society. Due to its collapsing economy, it has reached at a point it can no longer extend support and create a viable environment for them.
According to awate.come report of March 2008, Ethiopian, Sudanese and Somali opposition groups who are based in Eritrea are grumbling because the financially-strapped Eritrean government has taken measures that will limit their impact on the politics of their home countries.
For instance, the Eritrean government has been housing Eastern, Southern and Darfurian rebels in Asmara until recently. Now, all Eastern and Southern Sudanese opposition officials have been asked to leave Eritrea because the government can no longer afford the expenses associated with hosting them in Asmara.
As to Somali opposition members, including Mr. Sharif Hassen Sheik Aden, former speaker who had moved to Asmara, are leaving Eritrea for Dubai, Egypt and Djibouti as the Eritrean government no longer has the funds to support their activities in Asmara.
We know that the Eritrean government hosts a myriad of Ethiopian opposition groups. And the financial limitations have paralyzed the efforts of the government of Eritrea to create a viable environment for oppositions. As a result, some oppositions are ordered to relocate to new areas.
The government of Eritrea has reportedly been under deep abyss of crisis. The formation of government in exile is the other indication that the regime is fast moving towards its demise. The Eritrean government in exile was established in 2007. The aim is to salvage the country from unrest and anarchism as it is imminent and a matter of time that the dictatorial regime will soon come down to its knees. According to the president’s description on the internet, “… there was a chance that the government of the dictator lsayas Afeworki could collapse and power vacuum may be created. So, the safety and security of the people of Eritrea would be at risk. This is the worst scenario that can happen to a nation and its people…”
It is obvious that a government in exile is formed when the government in power fails to administer and protect its citizens; a country is in a state of crisis and the government is close to collapse and inevitable that failed state is going to be created. Hence, this is a clear indication that the regime is becoming unable to administer the country as well as ensure the safety and survival of its citizens.
All in all the evil acts and past mistakes the Eritrean regime committed in the years before has been inevitably pulling it towards its ultimate downfall. It has squandered the chance of cementing a close cooperation with its neighbors and step up the livelihoods of its destitute people. To this end the country has reportedly been failing to function as a sovereign state and its demise is thus becoming eminent and a matter of time!
