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Paul Henze response to Prof. Clapham |
| Dear Christopher,
Thanks for forwarding your letter to Tekeda. It is a tour de force, For you go a long way toward reconciling your Tswalu presentation with your present critique (by the way, would you send me a copy of your Tswalu presentation?).
Nevertheless, I still have reservations about some of the points you make. The enthusiasm with which many opponents of the present government in Ethiopia have received your observations does not, in many cases I fear, spring from a desire to see welcome efforts at considered judgment of the factors involved, but from mere joy at seeing the EPRDF government denigrated and embarrassed by an erstwhile supporter.
You underestimate the pernicious role of the diaspora, especially the diaspora in Washington DC and other parts of the United States. These people are not only, for the most part, strongly oriented toward traditional Amhara-Centrist concepts of Ethiopia; they are also heavily infiltrated by Derg elements. They are looking backward, not forward. They are engaging in scurrilous efforts to harass and denigrate all elements who do not agree with them--particularly Tigrayans, of course, but also others. Their behavior exacerbates the present situation and makes it extremely difficult to work toward a rational effort to mitigate strains and differences in Ethiopia itself. The US Government, fortunately, has been largely immune to their pressures, but they are agitating among Congressmen (never too difficult a task) to force the Administration to undertake punitive measures against Ethiopia which can only damage its economy and prospects for development and drive the EPRDF further into intransigence. They are also taking advantage of the large component of Ethiopians who work in the World Bank (many of them former officials of the HSI government) to press for lessening of World Bank support for Ethiopia. Their efforts to boycott Ethiopian Airlines and discourage trade with Ethiopia will harm the Ethiopian population far more than they will harm the EPRDF. Efforts must be made to concentrate the focus of Ethiopian politics IN ETHIOPIA ITSELF rather in the diaspora.
I see no prospect of bringing about a rational readjustment of the Ethiopian political situation if it is scene as a stand-off between the diaspora and the EPRDF government or if efforts to improve the present situation take the form of "mediation" between the CUD and the EPRDF. What the EPRDF has done for Ethiopie entitles it to play a role--not necessarily an exclusive role--on the Ethiopian political scene indefinitely into the future. The diaspora wants to see it destroyed. The same impression, unfortunately, is conveyed by many of the declarations of CUD leaders and their advocates. A zero-sum approach to Ethiopian politics can only have negative results, as you demonstrate in your comments.
I am less ready than you to accept the notion that the CUD has been essentially faultless in refraining from resorting to tactics that would encourage violence. The government needs to produce more specific evidence; of course, to make a legal case for punishment and accusations of treason may be --at least tactically--excessive. But a government in power which regards itself as having been the victim of an extra-legal effort to overthrow it is entitled to make its case before its own population as well as international authorities and have its evidence judged.
I also tend to question your benign judgment of the role of individuals such as Siegfried Pausewang (whom I have long known) and Ana Gomes(whom I do not know). In any event Pausewang had no direct role in election actions, though Ana Gomes did. The EPRDF case against her is at least worth hearing.
Elections in countries which have no tradition or experience of democratic competition will continue to be problematic. Enthusiasts of elections as the key to establishment of democracy are reconsidering their dogma in light of experiences in a wide range of countries where relatively open voting processes have nevertheless been prelude to violent confrontation and some are doing so. The important task for those of us who want to see democratic procedures firmly established in countries which will in the long run benefit from them is to find ways of educating both the elements in power and the populations at large in ways of composing differences and developing mechanisms for peaceful transition of authority. With all the promise it originally seemed to offer, the recent electoral experience in Ethiopia does not seem to have furthered that objective.
Let's keep up the discussion--but let's try to encourage less heat and more light! |
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